Celtiga vs Estradense: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Salvador Otero, A Illa de Arousa
The Footlab model makes Estradense the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Celtiga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Celtiga vs Estradense?
Estradense starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (1,809 vs 1,699).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Celtiga have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Estradense have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Arosa(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Atlético Arteixo(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Noia(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Villalbés(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Barbadás(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pontevedra(home) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Atlético Arteixo(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 16, 2026 | Atlético Arteixo(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 10, 2026 | Barco(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Compostela(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Celtiga win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Estradense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2026 | Celtiga 2-1 Estradense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Estradense 2-1 Celtiga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Celtiga vs Estradense on Feb 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Celtiga score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Estradense score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtiga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Estradense | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Celtiga sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 (40 points from 34 matches) and Estradense sit 4th (53 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Estradense | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 46 | 33 | 53 |
| 13 | Celtiga | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 47 | 48 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Celtiga vs Estradense?
- The Footlab model makes Estradense the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Celtiga.
- Where and when is Celtiga vs Estradense played?
- Celtiga vs Estradense is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Salvador Otero, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.