Cerro Largo vs Progreso: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 14Kick-off on November 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo
The Footlab AI model makes Cerro Largo the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Progreso. The most likely score is 1-1. If Cerro Largo wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,533 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Cerro Largo (1,760) and Progreso (1,715).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cerro Largo vs Progreso
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cerro Largo
4-3-3- 37A. Segovia
- 7G. Viera
- 29B. Lozano
- 15A. Assis
- 5S. Marcel
- 10Axel Michele Pandiani
- 20S. Franca
- 17A. Hernández
- 3A. Piegas
- 19A. Prado
- 12P. González
Progreso
4-2-3-1- 7A. Ocampo
- 5A. Pinheiro
- 16G. Trasante
- 25R. Cristóbal
- 21S. Bruschi
- 18G. Silva
- 40A. Cougo
- 24E. Álvarez
- 13H. Carroso
- 6M. Saravia
- 1R. Bacchia
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 03:08 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cerro Largo have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Progreso have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(away) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Boston River(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo(away) | 0-1 | Copa Uruguay |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Cerro(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Albion FC(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Defensor Sporting(home) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Wanderers(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Juventud(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Penarol(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo(away) | 2-3 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Cerro Largo wins, 0 draws, 0 Progreso wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Progreso 0-1 Cerro Largo | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Progreso 1-2 Cerro Largo | Primera División - Clausura |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Cerro Largo 4-1 Progreso | Primera División |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Cerro Largo 2-1 Progreso | Primera División - Clausura |
| Jun 4, 2024 | Progreso 0-1 Cerro Largo | Primera División |
| Oct 17, 2021 | Cerro Largo 1-0 Progreso | Primera División - Clausura |
Last archived meeting: Progreso vs Cerro Largo on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cerro Largo score 0.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Progreso score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro Largo | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Progreso | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cerro Largo sit 15th in Primera División (9 points from 13 matches) and Progreso sit 7th (19 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Progreso | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 15 | 19 |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 9 |
A question about Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
- The Footlab AI model makes Cerro Largo the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Progreso.
- Where and when is Cerro Largo vs Progreso played?
- Cerro Largo vs Progreso is played on November 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.