Cesena vs Padova: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 30Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Cesena
The Footlab model makes Cesena the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Padova. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cesena vs Padova?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Cesena (1,802) and Padova (1,835).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cesena have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Padova have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sampdoria(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 0-3 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Forli(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Vis Pesaro(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pisa(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Monza(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cittadella(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ospitaletto(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cesena win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Padova win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Cesena 3-4 Padova | Serie B |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Padova 1-1 Cesena | Serie B |
| Aug 4, 2024 | Cesena 3-1 Padova | Coppa Italia |
| Feb 28, 2021 | Padova 0-0 Cesena | Serie C - Girone B |
| Nov 2, 2020 | Cesena 0-2 Padova | Serie C - Girone B |
| Feb 9, 2020 | Cesena 1-1 Padova | Serie C - Girone B |
How many goals should we expect?
Cesena score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Padova score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Padova | 1.1 | 1.6 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cesena sit 10th in Serie B (1 points from 1 matches) and Padova sit 6th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Padova | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Cesena | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cesena vs Padova?
- The Footlab model makes Cesena the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Padova.
- Where and when is Cesena vs Padova played?
- Cesena vs Padova is played on March 13, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.