Cetatea vs Alexandria: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 5Group 5 - 9Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Municipal, Turnu Măgurele
The Footlab model makes Cetatea the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Alexandria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cetatea vs Alexandria?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Cetatea (1,511) and Alexandria (1,429).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cetatea have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Alexandria have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu(away) | 1-2 | Cupa României |
| May 22, 2026 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti(home) | 4-2 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 16, 2026 | Jiul Petroşani(away) | 2-0 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 8, 2026 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea(home) | 0-3 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 2, 2026 | Minerul Lupeni(away) | 0-2 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu(away) | 0-3 | Cupa României |
| May 15, 2026 | CSL Nanov(away) | 2-2 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| May 8, 2026 | Filiaşi(home) | 2-0 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| May 1, 2026 | Axi Adunații-Copăceni(away) | 1-2 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu(home) | 0-1 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Cetatea win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Alexandria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Alexandria 1-1 Cetatea | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Cetatea 2-0 Alexandria | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Cetatea 0-1 Alexandria | Liga III - Serie 4 |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Alexandria 3-0 Cetatea | Liga III - Serie 4 |
| Dec 3, 2022 | Cetatea 3-1 Alexandria | Liga III - Serie 6 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Alexandria 7-1 Cetatea | Liga III - Serie 6 |
Last archived meeting: Alexandria vs Cetatea on Mar 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cetatea score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Alexandria score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cetatea | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Alexandria | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cetatea sit 2nd in Liga III - Serie 5 (43 points from 20 matches) and Alexandria sit 2nd (43 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alexandria | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 43 |
| 2 | Cetatea | 20 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 41 | 19 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cetatea vs Alexandria?
- The Footlab model makes Cetatea the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Alexandria.
- Where and when is Cetatea vs Alexandria played?
- Cetatea vs Alexandria is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Municipal, in the Liga III - Serie 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.