Cetatea vs Progresul Spartac: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 5Group 5 - 21Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Municipal, Turnu Măgurele
The Footlab model makes Cetatea the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Progresul Spartac. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cetatea vs Progresul Spartac?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Cetatea (1,511) and Progresul Spartac (1,478).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cetatea have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Progresul Spartac have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu(away) | 1-2 | Cupa României |
| May 22, 2026 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti(home) | 4-2 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 16, 2026 | Jiul Petroşani(away) | 2-0 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 8, 2026 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea(home) | 0-3 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 2, 2026 | Minerul Lupeni(away) | 0-2 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | CIL Blaj(away) | 3-1 | Cupa României |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Metaloglobus(home) | 2-1 | Cupa României |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Bolintin Vale(away) | 3-1 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Progresul Fundulea(home) | 2-0 | Cupa României |
| May 15, 2026 | Axi Adunații-Copăceni(away) | 8-0 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Cetatea win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Progresul Spartac win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | Cetatea 6-2 Progresul Spartac | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Progresul Spartac 1-2 Cetatea | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Progresul Spartac 2-2 Cetatea | Liga III - Serie 4 |
| Sep 6, 2024 | Cetatea 2-3 Progresul Spartac | Liga III - Serie 4 |
Last archived meeting: Cetatea vs Progresul Spartac on Mar 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cetatea score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Progresul Spartac score 2.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cetatea | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Progresul Spartac | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cetatea sit 2nd in Liga III - Serie 5 (43 points from 20 matches) and Progresul Spartac sit 3rd (35 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cetatea | 20 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 41 | 19 | 43 |
| 3 | Progresul Spartac | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 8 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cetatea vs Progresul Spartac?
- The Footlab model makes Cetatea the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Progresul Spartac.
- Where and when is Cetatea vs Progresul Spartac played?
- Cetatea vs Progresul Spartac is played on March 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Municipal, in the Liga III - Serie 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.