Progresul Spartac vs Cetatea: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 5Group 5 - 10Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Progresul Spartac, București
The Footlab model makes Progresul Spartac the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Cetatea. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Progresul Spartac vs Cetatea?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Progresul Spartac (1,478) and Cetatea (1,511).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Progresul Spartac have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Cetatea have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | CIL Blaj(away) | 3-1 | Cupa României |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Metaloglobus(home) | 2-1 | Cupa României |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Bolintin Vale(away) | 3-1 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Progresul Fundulea(home) | 2-0 | Cupa României |
| May 15, 2026 | Axi Adunații-Copăceni(away) | 8-0 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu(away) | 1-2 | Cupa României |
| May 22, 2026 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti(home) | 4-2 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 16, 2026 | Jiul Petroşani(away) | 2-0 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 8, 2026 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea(home) | 0-3 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 2, 2026 | Minerul Lupeni(away) | 0-2 | Liga III - Play-offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Progresul Spartac win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Cetatea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | Cetatea 6-2 Progresul Spartac | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Progresul Spartac 1-2 Cetatea | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Progresul Spartac 2-2 Cetatea | Liga III - Serie 4 |
| Sep 6, 2024 | Cetatea 2-3 Progresul Spartac | Liga III - Serie 4 |
Last archived meeting: Cetatea vs Progresul Spartac on Mar 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Progresul Spartac score 2.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Cetatea score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresul Spartac | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Cetatea | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Progresul Spartac sit 3rd in Liga III - Serie 5 (35 points from 6 matches) and Cetatea sit 2nd (43 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cetatea | 20 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 41 | 19 | 43 |
| 3 | Progresul Spartac | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 8 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Progresul Spartac vs Cetatea?
- The Footlab model makes Progresul Spartac the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Cetatea.
- Where and when is Progresul Spartac vs Cetatea played?
- Progresul Spartac vs Cetatea is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Progresul Spartac, in the Liga III - Serie 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.