Ceuta II vs Conil: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Group 10 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta
The Footlab model makes Ceuta II the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Conil. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ceuta II vs Conil?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Ceuta II (1,771) and Conil (1,756).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ceuta II have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Conil have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Dos Hermanas(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| May 17, 2026 | Dos Hermanas(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| May 10, 2026 | San Roque Lepe(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| May 3, 2026 | Castilleja(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Coria CF(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Linense(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| May 3, 2026 | Recreativo Huelva(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Pozoblanco(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | San Roque Lepe(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Castilleja(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Ceuta II win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Conil win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Ceuta II 1-0 Conil | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Conil 0-2 Ceuta II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Ceuta II 2-0 Conil | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Conil 0-1 Ceuta II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Conil 0-0 Ceuta II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Ceuta II 2-1 Conil | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
How many goals should we expect?
Ceuta II score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Conil score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta II | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Conil | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ceuta II sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 (52 points from 34 matches) and Conil sit 8th (52 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ceuta II | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 38 | 38 | 52 |
| 8 | Conil | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 43 | 44 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ceuta II vs Conil?
- The Footlab model makes Ceuta II the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Conil.
- Where and when is Ceuta II vs Conil played?
- Ceuta II vs Conil is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 10.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.