Charleroi vs Genk: prediction and stats
Jupiler Pro LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
The Footlab model makes Charleroi the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Genk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Charleroi vs Genk?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Charleroi (1,987) and Genk (2,030).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Charleroi have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Genk have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | KV Mechelen(home) | 2-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lommel United(away) | 1-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | OH Leuven(home) | 3-1 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Seraing United(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Antwerp(away) | 4-4 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | KVC Westerlo(home) | 3-2 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Zulte Waregem(away) | 1-2 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Twente(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC OSS(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Charleroi win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Genk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Charleroi 2-0 Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Genk 1-1 Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Charleroi 2-2 Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Genk 0-1 Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| Feb 28, 2025 | Charleroi 1-1 Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Genk 3-0 Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
How many goals should we expect?
Charleroi score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Genk score 1.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Genk | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Charleroi sit 2nd in Jupiler Pro League (9 points from 3 matches) and Genk sit 9th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Charleroi | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Genk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Charleroi vs Genk?
- The Footlab model makes Charleroi the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Genk.
- Where and when is Charleroi vs Genk played?
- Charleroi vs Genk is played on December 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, in the Jupiler Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.