Genk vs Lommel United: prediction and stats
Jupiler Pro LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Cegeka Arena, Genk
The Footlab model makes Genk the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Lommel United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Genk vs Lommel United?
Genk starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (2,030 vs 1,867).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Genk have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Lommel United have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Antwerp(away) | 4-4 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | KVC Westerlo(home) | 3-2 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Zulte Waregem(away) | 1-2 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Twente(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC OSS(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | KVC Westerlo(home) | 4-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Charleroi(home) | 0-1 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | St. Truiden(away) | 1-1 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(home) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Genk score 1.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Lommel United score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Lommel United | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Genk sit 9th in Jupiler Pro League (4 points from 3 matches) and Lommel United sit 8th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lommel United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Genk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Genk vs Lommel United?
- The Footlab model makes Genk the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Lommel United.
- Where and when is Genk vs Lommel United played?
- Genk vs Lommel United is played on December 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Cegeka Arena, in the Jupiler Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.