Charlotte Independence vs Alta: prediction and stats
USL League OneGroup StageKick-off on August 28, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)American Legion Memorial Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
The Footlab model makes Charlotte Independence the favourite at 62%, against 20% for a draw and 18% for Alta. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Charlotte Independence vs Alta?
Charlotte Independence starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (1,763 vs 1,663).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Charlotte Independence have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Alta have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Forward Madison(away) | 1-1 | USL League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sarasota Paradise(home) | 3-1 | USL League One |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Hartford Athletic(home) | 2-4 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Greenville Triumph(home) | 1-0 | USL League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | One Knoxville(home) | 3-1 | USL League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Naples(home) | 1-2 | USL League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | NY Cosmos(away) | 0-1 | USL League One |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Fort Wayne(home) | 3-0 | USL League One |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Naples(away) | 1-2 | USL League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Richmond Kickers(away) | 2-3 | USL League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Charlotte Independence win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Alta win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 6, 2026 | Alta 1-1 Charlotte Independence | USL League One |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Charlotte Independence 3-2 Alta | USL League One |
| May 25, 2025 | Alta 2-1 Charlotte Independence | USL League One |
Last archived meeting: Alta vs Charlotte Independence on Jul 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Charlotte Independence score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Alta score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Independence | 2.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Alta | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Charlotte Independence sit 2nd in USL League One (43 points from 21 matches) and Alta sit 8th (32 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 47 | 29 | 43 |
| 8 | Alta | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 29 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Charlotte Independence vs Alta?
- The Footlab model makes Charlotte Independence the favourite at 62%, against 20% for a draw and 18% for Alta.
- Where and when is Charlotte Independence vs Alta played?
- Charlotte Independence vs Alta is played on August 28, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at American Legion Memorial Stadium, in the USL League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 8, 2026Westchester SC2-3One Knoxville
- Mar 8, 2026Naples2-0Fort Wayne
- Mar 8, 2026Sarasota Paradise0-1Boise
- Mar 8, 2026Alta1-1Richmond Kickers
- Mar 8, 2026TormentavsSpokane Velocity
- Mar 14, 2026NY Cosmos1-3Portland Hearts of Pine
- Mar 14, 2026TormentavsAlta
- Mar 14, 2026Greenville Triumph1-2Chattanooga Red Wolves