Chattanooga vs Carolina Core: prediction and stats
MLS Next ProGroup StageKick-off on August 29, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Finley Stadium, Chattanooga, Tennessee
The Footlab model makes Chattanooga the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Carolina Core. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chattanooga vs Carolina Core?
Chattanooga starts as the favourite with a 124-point Elo edge (1,715 vs 1,591).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chattanooga have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Carolina Core have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Crown Legacy(away) | 1-3 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Toronto II(away) | 2-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atlanta United II(home) | 1-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Inter Miami II(away) | 1-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Philadelphia Union II(home) | 4-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Cincinnati II(home) | 1-3 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Huntsville City(home) | 2-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Atlanta United II(away) | 3-3 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Chicago Fire II(home) | 1-5 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Inter Miami II(home) | 4-0 | MLS Next Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Chattanooga win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Carolina Core win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 2026 | Carolina Core 1-1 Chattanooga | MLS Next Pro |
| May 24, 2026 | Chattanooga 1-0 Carolina Core | MLS Next Pro |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Chattanooga 0-0 Carolina Core | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Carolina Core 0-1 Chattanooga | MLS Next Pro |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Carolina Core 1-4 Chattanooga | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 17, 2024 | Carolina Core 2-1 Chattanooga | MLS Next Pro |
Last archived meeting: Carolina Core vs Chattanooga on Jul 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chattanooga score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Carolina Core score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chattanooga | 1.9 | 1.3 | 6 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Carolina Core | 1.5 | 1.6 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chattanooga sit 2nd in MLS Next Pro (44 points from 24 matches) and Carolina Core sit 7th (26 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Chattanooga | 24 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 44 | 35 | 44 |
| 2 | Chattanooga | 24 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 44 | 35 | 44 |
| 2 | Chattanooga | 23 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 32 | 44 |
| 7 | Carolina Core | 24 | 8 | 0 | 16 | 33 | 43 | 26 |
| 14 | Carolina Core | 24 | 8 | 0 | 16 | 33 | 43 | 26 |
| 14 | Carolina Core | 23 | 8 | 0 | 15 | 32 | 40 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chattanooga vs Carolina Core?
- The Footlab model makes Chattanooga the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Carolina Core.
- Where and when is Chattanooga vs Carolina Core played?
- Chattanooga vs Carolina Core is played on August 29, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Finley Stadium, in the MLS Next Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2026Inter Miami II1-1Chicago Fire II
- Feb 28, 2026Philadelphia Union II1-0Toronto II
- Feb 28, 2026St. Louis City II4-0Sporting KC II
- Mar 1, 2026Chattanooga1-4Crown Legacy
- Mar 1, 2026Portland Timbers II2-1The Town
- Mar 1, 2026New York RB II4-2Columbus Crew II
- Mar 1, 2026Real Monarchs2-2North Texas
- Mar 1, 2026FC Cincinnati II1-3Connecticut FC