Chelyabinsk vs Spartak Kostroma: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Central'nyj, Chelyabinsk
The Footlab model makes Spartak Kostroma the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Chelyabinsk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chelyabinsk vs Spartak Kostroma?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Chelyabinsk (1,768) and Spartak Kostroma (1,841).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chelyabinsk have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Spartak Kostroma have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Leningradets(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(home) | 0-4 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rotor Volgograd(away) | 1-4 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Volga Ulyanovsk(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Nizhny Novgorod(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | FC UFA(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ska-khabarovsk(away) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Enisey(home) | 2-2 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tekstilshchik(away) | 0-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Chelyabinsk win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Spartak Kostroma win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Chelyabinsk 3-3 Spartak Kostroma | First League |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Spartak Kostroma 2-1 Chelyabinsk | First League |
| May 18, 2025 | Chelyabinsk 1-5 Spartak Kostroma | Second League A - Spring Season Gold |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Spartak Kostroma 3-1 Chelyabinsk | Second League A - Spring Season Gold |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Spartak Kostroma 0-0 Chelyabinsk | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Chelyabinsk 3-1 Spartak Kostroma | Second League A - Division A Gold |
Last archived meeting: Chelyabinsk vs Spartak Kostroma on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chelyabinsk score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Kostroma score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelyabinsk | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Spartak Kostroma | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chelyabinsk sit 13th in First League (7 points from 7 matches) and Spartak Kostroma sit 8th (12 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spartak Kostroma | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 12 |
| 13 | Chelyabinsk | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chelyabinsk vs Spartak Kostroma?
- The Footlab model makes Spartak Kostroma the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Chelyabinsk.
- Where and when is Chelyabinsk vs Spartak Kostroma played?
- Chelyabinsk vs Spartak Kostroma is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Central'nyj, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.