FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht, Sochi
The Footlab model makes Nizhny Novgorod the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for FC Sochi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate FC Sochi (1,829) and Nizhny Novgorod (1,843).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Sochi have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Nizhny Novgorod have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FK Neftekhimik(away) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Volga Ulyanovsk(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(away) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leningradets(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Arsenal Tula(home) | 5-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Veles(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tekstilshchik(away) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FK Neftekhimik(home) | 5-1 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl(home) | 3-0 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Chelyabinsk(away) | 2-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 FC Sochi win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Nizhny Novgorod win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Nizhny Novgorod 2-1 FC Sochi | Premier League |
| Oct 5, 2025 | FC Sochi 2-1 Nizhny Novgorod | Premier League |
| May 31, 2025 | Nizhny Novgorod 1-3 FC Sochi | Premier League |
| May 28, 2025 | FC Sochi 1-2 Nizhny Novgorod | Premier League |
| May 12, 2024 | FC Sochi 6-1 Nizhny Novgorod | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Nizhny Novgorod 1-0 FC Sochi | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Sochi on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Sochi score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Nizhny Novgorod score 2.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Sochi | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Nizhny Novgorod | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Sochi sit 5th in First League (13 points from 7 matches) and Nizhny Novgorod sit 1st (18 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | FC Sochi | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod?
- The Footlab model makes Nizhny Novgorod the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for FC Sochi.
- Where and when is FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod played?
- FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.