Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol': prediction and stats
Persha LigaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Yunist, Chernihiv
The Footlab model makes Chernihiv the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Yarud Mariupol'. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol'?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Chernihiv (1,599) and Yarud Mariupol' (1,602).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chernihiv have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Yarud Mariupol' have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Polissya II(home) | 2-2 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Probiy Horodenka(away) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kulykiv(home) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lokomotiv Kyiv(away) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Obolon'-Brovar(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dinaz Vyshhorod(away) | 6-0 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka II(home) | 3-1 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SK Poltava(home) | 0-3 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk(away) | 0-2 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka(home) | 0-1 | Persha Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Chernihiv win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Yarud Mariupol' win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Chernihiv 1-4 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Chernihiv 0-0 Yarud Mariupol' | Cup |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Yarud Mariupol' 1-0 Chernihiv | Persha Liga |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Yarud Mariupol' 3-1 Chernihiv | Persha Liga |
| Sep 13, 2023 | Chernihiv 0-1 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| May 7, 2023 | Yarud Mariupol' 1-1 Chernihiv | Persha Liga |
Last archived meeting: Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol' on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chernihiv score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Yarud Mariupol' score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chernihiv | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chernihiv sit 10th in Persha Liga (4 points from 4 matches) and Yarud Mariupol' sit 13th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chernihiv | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Yarud Mariupol' | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol'?
- The Footlab model makes Chernihiv the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Yarud Mariupol'.
- Where and when is Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol' played?
- Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol' is played on October 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Yunist, in the Persha Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.