Chornomorets vs Karpaty: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Chornomorets, Odesa
The Footlab AI model makes Karpaty the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Chornomorets. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,849 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chornomorets vs Karpaty?
Karpaty starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (1,987 vs 1,808).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chornomorets vs Karpaty
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chornomorets
4-2-3-1- 99C. Mba
- 11K. Popov
- 18G. Robakidze
- 13V. Faraseenko
- 10A. Avagimyan
- 30M. Jobe
- 24M. Jarju
- 27O. Pushkarev
- 74M. Farina
- 60M. Melnychenko
- 12C. Aniagboso
Karpaty
4-1-4-1- 9J. Séry
- 8A. Chachua
- 10Moha
- 17R. Vantukh
- 70Xeber Alkain
- 7Fellipe Vieira
- 47Jean Pedroso
- 4V. Baboglo
- 14Iván Calero
- 73R. Lyakh
- 80R. Mysak
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 08:57 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chornomorets have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Karpaty have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Zorya Luhansk(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Obolon'-Brovar(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Livyi Bereh(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | KV Mechelen(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Veres Rivne(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(away) | 3-2 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Chornomorets win, 1 draw, 4 Karpaty wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | Karpaty 4-0 Chornomorets | Premier League |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Chornomorets 0-1 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Aug 21, 2024 | Karpaty 3-0 Chornomorets | Cup |
| May 21, 2019 | Chornomorets 3-1 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Apr 23, 2019 | Karpaty 0-0 Chornomorets | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2018 | Chornomorets 0-5 Karpaty | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Karpaty vs Chornomorets on Mar 30, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Chornomorets score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Karpaty score 2.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chornomorets | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Karpaty | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chornomorets sit 14th in Premier League (5 points from 8 matches) and Karpaty sit 5th (15 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Karpaty | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 15 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 5 |
A question about Chornomorets vs Karpaty?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chornomorets vs Karpaty?
- The Footlab AI model makes Karpaty the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Chornomorets.
- Where and when is Chornomorets vs Karpaty played?
- Chornomorets vs Karpaty is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Chornomorets, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.