Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on April 3, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Chornomorets, Odesa
The Footlab model makes Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Chornomorets. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk is a heavy favourite: 2,090 Elo points against 1,738 — a 352-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chornomorets have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Shakhtar Donetsk have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vilkhivtsi(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Polessya(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nyva Vinnytsya(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Kudrivka(home) | 5-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Bursaspor(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 23, 2026 | HNK Gorica(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Chornomorets win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Shakhtar Donetsk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2025 | Chornomorets 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 Chornomorets | Premier League |
| May 5, 2024 | Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Chornomorets | Premier League |
| May 1, 2024 | Chornomorets 1-4 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Apr 3, 2024 | Shakhtar Donetsk 4-1 Chornomorets | Cup |
| Apr 2, 2023 | Chornomorets 2-2 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk on May 3, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Chornomorets score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Shakhtar Donetsk score 2.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chornomorets | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chornomorets sit 15th in Premier League (0 points from 2 matches) and Shakhtar Donetsk sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| 15 | Chornomorets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
- The Footlab model makes Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Chornomorets.
- Where and when is Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk played?
- Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk is played on April 3, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Chornomorets, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.