Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Arena Lviv, Lviv
The Footlab model makes Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Chornomorets. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets?
Shakhtar Donetsk is a heavy favourite: 2,090 Elo points against 1,738, a 352-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shakhtar Donetsk have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Chornomorets have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Kudrivka(home) | 5-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Bursaspor(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 23, 2026 | HNK Gorica(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vilkhivtsi(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Polessya(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nyva Vinnytsya(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Shakhtar Donetsk win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Chornomorets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2025 | Chornomorets 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 Chornomorets | Premier League |
| May 5, 2024 | Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Chornomorets | Premier League |
| May 1, 2024 | Chornomorets 1-4 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Apr 3, 2024 | Shakhtar Donetsk 4-1 Chornomorets | Cup |
| Apr 2, 2023 | Chornomorets 2-2 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk on May 3, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Shakhtar Donetsk score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Chornomorets score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Chornomorets | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shakhtar Donetsk sit 2nd in Premier League (9 points from 3 matches) and Chornomorets sit 15th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| 15 | Chornomorets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets?
- The Footlab model makes Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Chornomorets.
- Where and when is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets played?
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Lviv, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.