Colunga vs Lealtad: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santianes, Colunga
The Footlab AI model makes Lealtad the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Colunga. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lealtad wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,356 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Colunga vs Lealtad?
Lealtad starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (1,731 vs 1,630).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Colunga vs Lealtad
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Colunga
Not enough data to predict the Colunga lineup.
Lealtad
4-3-3- AAdrián Rueda Colunga
- MM. Ouroui
- JJaime Alvarez
- 6Marcos Blanco
- YYerpes
- BBabafemo Fofana
- RRiki Menéndez
- OOmar Hernández
- AA. Mendy
- RRicardo Pesquera
- JJuan Junquera
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:29 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Colunga have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Lealtad have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Praviano(home) | 5-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | L'Entregu(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Covadonga(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ceares(away) | 4-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Astur(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Langreo(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Avilés Stadium(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Llanes(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Praviano(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Colunga win, 0 draws, 5 Lealtad wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2025 | Lealtad 3-2 Colunga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Colunga 1-4 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Lealtad 0-1 Colunga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Colunga 0-2 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Feb 12, 2023 | Lealtad 2-0 Colunga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 9, 2022 | Colunga 0-3 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Colunga score 1.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lealtad score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colunga | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Lealtad | 1.2 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Colunga sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (11 points from 6 matches) and Lealtad sit 8th (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Colunga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 11 |
| 8 | Lealtad | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
A question about Colunga vs Lealtad?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Colunga vs Lealtad?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lealtad the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Colunga.
- Where and when is Colunga vs Lealtad played?
- Colunga vs Lealtad is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santianes, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.