Gijón Industrial vs Covadonga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santa Cruz, Gijón
The Footlab model makes Covadonga the favourite at 73%, against 16% for a draw and 11% for Gijón Industrial. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gijón Industrial vs Covadonga?
Covadonga is a heavy favourite: 1,931 Elo points against 1,627 — a 304-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gijón Industrial have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Covadonga have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Colunga(home) | 6-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Mosconia(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ceares(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Caudal(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Siero(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | Caudal(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 24, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 17, 2026 | Mosconia(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 9, 2026 | Real Titánico(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Gijón Industrial win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Covadonga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Covadonga 6-0 Gijón Industrial | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Gijón Industrial 1-3 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Mar 20, 2022 | Gijón Industrial 1-3 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 31, 2021 | Covadonga 3-1 Gijón Industrial | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jan 19, 2020 | Gijón Industrial 0-1 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 1, 2019 | Covadonga 1-1 Gijón Industrial | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Covadonga vs Gijón Industrial on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gijón Industrial score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Covadonga score 2.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gijón Industrial | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Covadonga | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gijón Industrial sit 14th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (32 points from 34 matches) and Covadonga sit 2nd (80 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Covadonga | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 88 | 24 | 80 |
| 14 | Gijón Industrial | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 36 | 57 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gijón Industrial vs Covadonga?
- The Footlab model makes Covadonga the favourite at 73%, against 16% for a draw and 11% for Gijón Industrial.
- Where and when is Gijón Industrial vs Covadonga played?
- Gijón Industrial vs Covadonga is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santa Cruz, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.