Condal vs Covadonga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 26Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Alejandro Ortea, Noreña
The Footlab model makes Covadonga the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Condal. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Condal vs Covadonga?
Covadonga is a heavy favourite: 1,931 Elo points against 1,575 — a 356-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Condal have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Covadonga have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Sporting Gijón II(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 4, 2025 | Ceares(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Colunga(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Covadonga(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | L'Entregu(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | Caudal(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 24, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 17, 2026 | Mosconia(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 9, 2026 | Real Titánico(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Condal win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Covadonga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2025 | Covadonga 5-0 Condal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Condal 0-3 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 1, 2023 | Covadonga 4-0 Condal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 4, 2022 | Condal 0-3 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Feb 9, 2020 | Condal 0-2 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 22, 2019 | Covadonga 4-2 Condal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Condal score 0.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Covadonga score 2.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condal | 0.3 | 1.9 | 4 | 3/15 | 5/15 |
| Covadonga | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Covadonga | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 88 | 24 | 80 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Condal vs Covadonga?
- The Footlab model makes Covadonga the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Condal.
- Where and when is Condal vs Covadonga played?
- Condal vs Covadonga is played on March 14, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Alejandro Ortea, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.