Condal vs Covadonga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 26Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Alejandro Ortea, Noreña
The Footlab AI model makes Covadonga the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Condal. The most likely score is 1-1. If Covadonga wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,381 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Condal vs Covadonga?
Covadonga starts as the favourite with a 289-point Elo edge (1,913 vs 1,625).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Condal vs Covadonga
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Condal
4-3-3- EEnol Sánchez
- 7Zucu
- LLuciano Manduci
- MMiguel Rodríguez
- AAndres Diaz
- AAlex Blanco
- DDarío Sobrino
- HHugo Sobrino
- BBorja Granda
- SSergio Rueda
- LLuis Suarez
Covadonga
Not enough data to predict the Covadonga lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 11:14 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Condal have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Covadonga have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Andes(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Llanes(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Gijón Industrial(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | San Martín(away) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Martín(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Siero(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Colunga(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Langreo(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Condal wins, 0 draws, 6 Covadonga wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2025 | Covadonga 5-0 Condal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Condal 0-3 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 1, 2023 | Covadonga 4-0 Condal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 4, 2022 | Condal 0-3 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Feb 9, 2020 | Condal 0-2 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 22, 2019 | Covadonga 4-2 Condal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Condal score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Covadonga score 2.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condal | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Covadonga | 2.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Condal sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (11 points from 5 matches) and Covadonga sit 1st (13 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Covadonga | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Condal | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 11 |
A question about Condal vs Covadonga?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Condal vs Covadonga?
- The Footlab AI model makes Covadonga the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Condal.
- Where and when is Condal vs Covadonga played?
- Condal vs Covadonga is played on March 14, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Alejandro Ortea, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.