Corinthians vs Fluminense: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 28Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Corinthians the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Fluminense. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Corinthians vs Fluminense?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Corinthians (2,002) and Fluminense (2,007).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Corinthians have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Fluminense have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Rosario Central(home) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rosario Central(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 2-1 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(home) | 1-3 | Copa Do Brasil |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Corinthians win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Fluminense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Fluminense 3-1 Corinthians | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Fluminense 0-1 Corinthians | Serie A |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Corinthians 0-2 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Fluminense 0-0 Corinthians | Serie A |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Corinthians 3-0 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Oct 20, 2023 | Fluminense 3-3 Corinthians | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Fluminense vs Corinthians on Apr 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Corinthians score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Fluminense score 1.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 1.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Fluminense | 1.2 | 1.0 | 3 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Corinthians sit 9th in Serie A (32 points from 23 matches) and Fluminense sit 4th (38 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 38 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 25 | 22 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Corinthians vs Fluminense?
- The Footlab model makes Corinthians the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Fluminense.
- Where and when is Corinthians vs Fluminense played?
- Corinthians vs Fluminense is played on September 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Maracanã, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.