Cork City vs Finn Harps: prediction and stats
First DivisionRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Turner's Cross, Cork
The Footlab model makes Cork City the favourite at 87%, against 10% for a draw and 4% for Finn Harps. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cork City vs Finn Harps?
Cork City is a heavy favourite: 1,552 Elo points against 1,189, a 363-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cork City have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Finn Harps have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Treaty United(away) | 2-2 | First Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Kerry(home) | 3-1 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Athlone Town(home) | 3-2 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Finn Harps(away) | 3-0 | First Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | UCD(away) | 2-5 | First Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(home) | 1-3 | First Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(away) | 0-5 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Longford Town(away) | 0-5 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cork City(home) | 0-3 | First Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Kerry(away) | 1-2 | First Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Cork City win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Finn Harps win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Finn Harps 0-3 Cork City | First Division |
| May 29, 2026 | Cork City 4-0 Finn Harps | First Division |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Finn Harps 0-0 Cork City | First Division |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Finn Harps 0-3 Cork City | FAI Cup |
| Sep 20, 2024 | Cork City 2-2 Finn Harps | First Division |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Cork City 1-0 Finn Harps | FAI Cup |
Last archived meeting: Finn Harps vs Cork City on Jul 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cork City score 2.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Finn Harps score 0.5 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cork City | 2.3 | 1.6 | 8 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Finn Harps | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 5/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cork City sit 1st in First Division (48 points from 20 matches) and Finn Harps sit 9th (18 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 40 | 11 | 48 |
| 1 | Cork City | 28 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 59 | 25 | 64 |
| 9 | Finn Harps | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 18 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 28 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 56 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cork City vs Finn Harps?
- The Footlab model makes Cork City the favourite at 87%, against 10% for a draw and 4% for Finn Harps.
- Where and when is Cork City vs Finn Harps played?
- Cork City vs Finn Harps is played on October 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Turner's Cross, in the First Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.