Crewe vs Aston Villa U21: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup North - 2Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Mornflake Stadium, Crewe, Cheshire
The Footlab model makes Crewe the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Aston Villa U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Crewe vs Aston Villa U21?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Crewe (1,780) and Aston Villa U21 (1,719).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Crewe have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Aston Villa U21 have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Northampton(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crawley Town(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chester(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Brighton U21(home) | 2-1 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Wigan(away) | 2-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Tamworth(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 1, 2026 | Manchester City U21(home) | 2-3 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Southampton U21(away) | 3-3 | Premier League 2 Division One |
How many goals should we expect?
Crewe score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa U21 score 1.9 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe | 1.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Aston Villa U21 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Crewe sit 1st in EFL Trophy (9 points from 3 matches) and Aston Villa U21 sit 4th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crewe | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | Aston Villa U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Crewe vs Aston Villa U21?
- The Footlab model makes Crewe the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Aston Villa U21.
- Where and when is Crewe vs Aston Villa U21 played?
- Crewe vs Aston Villa U21 is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Mornflake Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.