Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Leones Negros UDG: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 10Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 09:45 PM (UTC)Estadio 10 de Diciembre, Jasso
The Footlab model makes Cruz Azul Hidalgo the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Leones Negros UDG. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Leones Negros UDG?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Cruz Azul Hidalgo (1,911) and Leones Negros UDG (1,869).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cruz Azul Hidalgo have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; Leones Negros UDG have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CA La Paz(away) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Monarcas(home) | 1-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 9, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(away) | 0-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Venados FC(home) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Tapatío(away) | 0-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Durango(away) | 2-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(home) | 4-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(home) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cancún(away) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tlaxcala(away) | 4-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Cruz Azul Hidalgo score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Leones Negros UDG score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 0.9 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 4/15 |
| Leones Negros UDG | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cruz Azul Hidalgo sit 13th in Liga de Expansión MX (2 points from 3 matches) and Leones Negros UDG sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros UDG | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Leones Negros UDG | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 13 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| 14 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Leones Negros UDG?
- The Footlab model makes Cruz Azul Hidalgo the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Leones Negros UDG.
- Where and when is Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Leones Negros UDG played?
- Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Leones Negros UDG is played on September 26, 2026 at 09:45 PM (UTC) at Estadio 10 de Diciembre, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.