Tlaxcala vs Cancún: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 10Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Tlahuicole, Tlaxcala
The Footlab model makes Cancún the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Tlaxcala. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tlaxcala vs Cancún?
Cancún starts as the favourite with a 189-point Elo edge (1,904 vs 1,715).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tlaxcala have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Cancún have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tepatitlán(away) | 2-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dorados(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(home) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(away) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(home) | 2-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Piratas(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Durango(home) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Monarcas(away) | 1-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(home) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tlaxcala win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Cancún win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Tlaxcala 1-0 Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Cancún 3-0 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Tlaxcala 1-1 Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Cancún 5-2 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jan 11, 2024 | Tlaxcala 1-0 Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 7, 2023 | Cancún 1-2 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Tlaxcala score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Cancún score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tlaxcala | 1.2 | 1.6 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Cancún | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tlaxcala sit 15th in Liga de Expansión MX (0 points from 3 matches) and Cancún sit 14th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cancún | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Cancún | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 | Tlaxcala | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 | Tlaxcala | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tlaxcala vs Cancún?
- The Footlab model makes Cancún the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Tlaxcala.
- Where and when is Tlaxcala vs Cancún played?
- Tlaxcala vs Cancún is played on September 26, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Tlahuicole, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.