CSKA Sofia vs FC Thun: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa Conference LeagueLeague Stage - 6Kick-off on December 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, Sofia
The Footlab AI model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for FC Thun. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs FC Thun?
CSKA Sofia starts as the favourite with a 166-point Elo edge (1,944 vs 1,778).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for CSKA Sofia vs FC Thun
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
CSKA Sofia
4-4-2- 28I. Pittas
- 10J. Zwarts
- 7M. Ebong
- 8S. Sensi
- 6Bruno Jordão
- 99J. Eto'o
- 14T. Ivanov
- 17Á. Martino
- 2Pastor
- 32Facundo Santiago Rodríguez
- 21F. Lapoukhov
FC Thun
4-4-2- 80S. Lengen
- 9F. Dursun
- 16J. Roth
- 13N. Zoukit
- 30N. Maier
- 52Adam Ilic
- 18T. Strannegård
- 19J. Bamert
- 47F. Fehr
- 5N. Bürgy
- 1N. Steffen
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:39 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CSKA Sofia have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; FC Thun have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 3-2 | First League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(home) | 4-1 | First League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 4-2 | Super Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | FC Zurich(away) | 2-4 | Super League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | SC Kriens(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Vaduz(away) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Servette FC(home) | 2-4 | Super League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Grasshoppers(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
CSKA Sofia score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; FC Thun score 1.9 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| FC Thun | 1.9 | 2.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about CSKA Sofia vs FC Thun?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CSKA Sofia vs FC Thun?
- The Footlab AI model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for FC Thun.
- Where and when is CSKA Sofia vs FC Thun played?
- CSKA Sofia vs FC Thun is played on December 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.