CSM FC Vaslui vs Aerostar Bacau: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 1Group 1 - 3Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Municipal, Vaslui
The Footlab model makes CSM FC Vaslui the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Aerostar Bacau. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CSM FC Vaslui vs Aerostar Bacau?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate CSM FC Vaslui (1,449) and Aerostar Bacau (1,365).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CSM FC Vaslui have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Aerostar Bacau have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Aerostar Bacau(away) | 1-3 | Cupa României |
| May 16, 2026 | CSM Adjud(away) | 0-1 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | Gheorgheni(home) | 1-0 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Aerostar Bacau(away) | 0-3 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | USV Iaşi(home) | 2-2 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Viitorul Onesti(home) | 0-1 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | CSM FC Vaslui(home) | 3-1 | Cupa României |
| May 16, 2026 | Bucovina Rădăuţi(home) | 2-1 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Odorheiu Secuiesc(away) | 2-6 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | CSM FC Vaslui(home) | 3-0 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 CSM FC Vaslui win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Aerostar Bacau win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Aerostar Bacau 3-1 CSM FC Vaslui | Cupa României |
| May 1, 2026 | Aerostar Bacau 3-0 CSM FC Vaslui | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Mar 7, 2026 | CSM FC Vaslui 1-0 Aerostar Bacau | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Aerostar Bacau 1-1 CSM FC Vaslui | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 11, 2024 | CSM FC Vaslui 3-0 Aerostar Bacau | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Apr 12, 2024 | Aerostar Bacau 0-2 CSM FC Vaslui | Liga III - Serie 1 |
Last archived meeting: Aerostar Bacau vs CSM FC Vaslui on Jul 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CSM FC Vaslui score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Aerostar Bacau score 1.7 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSM FC Vaslui | 1.2 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Aerostar Bacau | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CSM FC Vaslui sit 1st in Liga III - Serie 1 (41 points from 7 matches) and Aerostar Bacau sit 5th (35 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSM FC Vaslui | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | Aerostar Bacau | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CSM FC Vaslui vs Aerostar Bacau?
- The Footlab model makes CSM FC Vaslui the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Aerostar Bacau.
- Where and when is CSM FC Vaslui vs Aerostar Bacau played?
- CSM FC Vaslui vs Aerostar Bacau is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Municipal, in the Liga III - Serie 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.