Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC: prediction and stats
K League 1Regular Season - 32Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC)Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Daejeon
The Footlab model makes Daejeon Citizen the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Gwangju FC. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC?
Daejeon Citizen starts as the favourite with a 169-point Elo edge (1,799 vs 1,630).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Daejeon Citizen have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Gwangju FC have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Ulsan Hyundai FC(home) | 2-1 | K League 1 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Gangwon FC(home) | 3-0 | K League 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Asan Mugunghwa(away) | 3-2 | FA Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Seoul(away) | 2-4 | K League 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Anyang(away) | 2-1 | K League 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Gangwon FC(away) | 2-2 | K League 1 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Incheon United(home) | 0-1 | K League 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ulsan Citizen(away) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pohang Steelers(home) | 1-2 | K League 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bucheon FC 1995(away) | 0-0 | K League 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Daejeon Citizen win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Gwangju FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Daejeon Citizen 2-0 Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| May 2, 2026 | Gwangju FC 0-5 Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Gwangju FC 2-0 Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Gwangju FC 2-2 Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Daejeon Citizen 1-1 Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Gwangju FC 0-0 Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 |
Last archived meeting: Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Daejeon Citizen score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Gwangju FC score 0.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daejeon Citizen | 1.4 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Gwangju FC | 0.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Daejeon Citizen sit 9th in K League 1 (32 points from 25 matches) and Gwangju FC sit 12th (12 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Daejeon Citizen | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 29 | 32 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 25 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 52 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC?
- The Footlab model makes Daejeon Citizen the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Gwangju FC.
- Where and when is Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC played?
- Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC is played on October 18, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, in the K League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.