Dečić vs Mornar: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Tuško Polje, Tuzi
The Footlab model makes Mornar the favourite at 41%, against 33% for a draw and 26% for Dečić. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dečić vs Mornar?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Dečić (1,526) and Mornar (1,619).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dečić have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Mornar have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Otrant-Olympic(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Bokelj(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Buducnost Podgorica(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Arsenal Tivat(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Buducnost Podgorica(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mladost DG(away) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Arsenal Tivat(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Jezero(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Dečić win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Mornar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | Dečić 0-1 Mornar | Cup |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Mornar 1-0 Dečić | First League |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Dečić 0-0 Mornar | First League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Mornar 1-0 Dečić | First League |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Dečić 2-1 Mornar | First League |
| May 29, 2025 | Mornar 0-1 Dečić | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Dečić score 0.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Mornar score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 29% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dečić | 0.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Mornar | 1.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dečić sit 1st in First League (10 points from 4 matches) and Mornar sit 2nd (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dečić | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Mornar | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dečić vs Mornar?
- The Footlab model makes Mornar the favourite at 41%, against 33% for a draw and 26% for Dečić.
- Where and when is Dečić vs Mornar played?
- Dečić vs Mornar is played on September 19, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Tuško Polje, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 29% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.