Deren vs Ulaanbaatar: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 10, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC)Football Centre MFF, Ulan Bator (Ulaanbaatar)
The Footlab AI model makes Ulaanbaatar the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Deren. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,481 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Deren vs Ulaanbaatar?
Ulaanbaatar starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (1,751 vs 1,641).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Deren vs Ulaanbaatar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Deren
Not enough data to predict the Deren lineup.
Ulaanbaatar
Not enough data to predict the Ulaanbaatar lineup.
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 09:22 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Deren have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Ulaanbaatar have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Central Stallions(away) | 3-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Ulaanbaatar(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Hunters(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Erchim(home) | 5-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Central Stallions(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Hunters(away) | 9-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Deren(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Central Stallions(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Central Stallions(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Khovd Western(home) | 8-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Deren wins, 2 draws, 4 Ulaanbaatar wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | Ulaanbaatar 1-0 Deren | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Deren 0-0 Ulaanbaatar | Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulaanbaatar 2-0 Deren | Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Deren 1-1 Ulaanbaatar | Premier League |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Deren 0-1 Ulaanbaatar | Premier League |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Ulaanbaatar 4-1 Deren | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Deren score 3.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ulaanbaatar score 4.0 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deren | 3.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Ulaanbaatar | 4.0 | 0.5 | 10 | 4/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Deren sit 3rd in Premier League (21 points from 11 matches) and Ulaanbaatar sit 1st (31 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ulaanbaatar | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 50 | 5 | 31 |
| 3 | Deren | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 13 | 21 |
A question about Deren vs Ulaanbaatar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Deren vs Ulaanbaatar?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ulaanbaatar the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Deren.
- Where and when is Deren vs Ulaanbaatar played?
- Deren vs Ulaanbaatar is played on November 10, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC) at Football Centre MFF, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.