Derry City vs Galway United: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 32Kick-off on September 18, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Londonderry
The Footlab model makes Derry City the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Galway United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derry City vs Galway United?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Derry City (1,660) and Galway United (1,595).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derry City have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Galway United have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bohemians(away) | 3-5 | Premier Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | UCD(away) | 2-1 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(home) | 2-0 | Premier Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | HNK Rijeka(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dundalk(away) | 2-1 | Premier Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(home) | 1-1 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Drogheda United(home) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Bohemians(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Waterford(home) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Derry City win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Galway United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 19, 2026 | Galway United 2-1 Derry City | Premier Division |
| May 4, 2026 | Derry City 1-1 Galway United | Premier Division |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Galway United 2-1 Derry City | Premier Division |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Galway United 1-2 Derry City | Premier Division |
| Jun 13, 2025 | Derry City 1-1 Galway United | Premier Division |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Galway United 2-3 Derry City | Premier Division |
Last archived meeting: Galway United vs Derry City on Jun 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Derry City score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Galway United score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Galway United | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derry City sit 6th in Premier Division (33 points from 28 matches) and Galway United sit 7th (33 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Derry City | 28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 37 | 33 |
| 6 | Derry City | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 25 |
| 7 | Galway United | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 35 | 41 | 33 |
| 7 | Galway United | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 31 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derry City vs Galway United?
- The Footlab model makes Derry City the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Galway United.
- Where and when is Derry City vs Galway United played?
- Derry City vs Galway United is played on September 18, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.