Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 29Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Londonderry
The Footlab model makes Derry City the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Shamrock Rovers. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,773 vs 1,660).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derry City have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Shamrock Rovers have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bohemians(away) | 3-5 | Premier Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | UCD(away) | 2-1 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(home) | 2-0 | Premier Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | HNK Rijeka(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | KuPS(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(away) | 2-3 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë(away) | 1-5 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Dundalk(home) | 3-2 | Premier Division |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Derry City win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Shamrock Rovers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers 1-1 Derry City | Premier Division |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Derry City 1-0 Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers 1-0 Derry City | Premier Division |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers 0-1 Derry City | FAI President's Cup |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Derry City 2-1 Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Shamrock Rovers 2-0 Derry City | Premier Division |
Last archived meeting: Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City on Jun 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Derry City score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Shamrock Rovers score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Shamrock Rovers | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derry City sit 6th in Premier Division (33 points from 28 matches) and Shamrock Rovers sit 1st (54 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 43 | 24 | 54 |
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 19 | 43 |
| 6 | Derry City | 28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 37 | 33 |
| 6 | Derry City | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
- The Footlab model makes Derry City the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Shamrock Rovers.
- Where and when is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers played?
- Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers is played on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.