Drogheda United vs Dundalk: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 29Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Sullivan & Lambe Park, Drogheda
The Footlab model makes Dundalk the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Drogheda United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Drogheda United (1,586) and Dundalk (1,599).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Drogheda United have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Dundalk have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(home) | 0-2 | Premier Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | College Corinthians(away) | 3-0 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Galway United(away) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(home) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(away) | 2-2 | Premier Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Galway United(home) | 1-2 | Premier Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Castlebar Celtic(home) | 8-0 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(away) | 2-3 | Premier Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(home) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Drogheda United win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Dundalk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2026 | Dundalk 1-2 Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| May 22, 2026 | Drogheda United 1-1 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Dundalk 1-1 Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Drogheda United 0-0 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| Jul 19, 2024 | Drogheda United 2-1 Dundalk | FAI Cup |
| Jul 12, 2024 | Dundalk 4-2 Drogheda United | Premier Division |
Last archived meeting: Dundalk vs Drogheda United on Jul 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Drogheda United score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Dundalk score 1.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drogheda United | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Dundalk | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Drogheda United sit 9th in Premier Division (28 points from 28 matches) and Dundalk sit 4th (37 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dundalk | 21 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 34 | 29 | 35 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 43 | 43 | 37 |
| 8 | Drogheda United | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 27 | 36 | 22 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 31 | 45 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
- The Footlab model makes Dundalk the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Drogheda United.
- Where and when is Drogheda United vs Dundalk played?
- Drogheda United vs Dundalk is played on August 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Sullivan & Lambe Park, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.