Desenzano Calvina vs Novara: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 31Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Tre Stelle, Desenzano del Garda
The Footlab model makes Desenzano Calvina the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Novara. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Desenzano Calvina vs Novara?
Desenzano Calvina starts as the favourite with a 155-point Elo edge (1,912 vs 1,757).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Desenzano Calvina have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Novara have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | PRO Vercelli(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lecco(away) | 0-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 31, 2026 | Scafatese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 24, 2026 | Scafatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 17, 2026 | Grosseto(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Juventus U23(away) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alcione(away) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Virtus Entella(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sampdoria(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Ospitaletto(away) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone A |
How many goals should we expect?
Desenzano Calvina score 1.1 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Novara score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desenzano Calvina | 1.1 | 0.5 | 8 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| Novara | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Desenzano Calvina sit 10th in Serie C - Girone A (1 points from 1 matches) and Novara sit 18th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Desenzano Calvina | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 18 | Novara | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Desenzano Calvina vs Novara?
- The Footlab model makes Desenzano Calvina the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Novara.
- Where and when is Desenzano Calvina vs Novara played?
- Desenzano Calvina vs Novara is played on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Tre Stelle, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.