Drøbak / Frogn vs Sarpsborg 08 II: prediction and stats
3. Division - Girone 6Regular Season - 22Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Seiersten stadion, Drøbak
The Footlab model makes Drøbak / Frogn the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Sarpsborg 08 II. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Drøbak / Frogn vs Sarpsborg 08 II?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Drøbak / Frogn (1,607) and Sarpsborg 08 II (1,514).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Drøbak / Frogn have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Sarpsborg 08 II have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gamle Oslo(away) | 1-6 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Råde(away) | 2-3 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Sandefjord II(home) | 1-0 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lillehammer(away) | 1-2 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Brumunddal(home) | 7-1 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Fram(away) | 0-3 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Brumunddal(home) | 11-0 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Oppsal(away) | 2-2 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Ørn Horten(home) | 2-3 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Bjørkelangen(away) | 0-2 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Drøbak / Frogn win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Sarpsborg 08 II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2026 | Sarpsborg 08 II 1-0 Drøbak / Frogn | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Drøbak / Frogn 3-3 Sarpsborg 08 II | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Apr 7, 2025 | Sarpsborg 08 II 5-1 Drøbak / Frogn | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
Last archived meeting: Sarpsborg 08 II vs Drøbak / Frogn on May 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Drøbak / Frogn score 1.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sarpsborg 08 II score 2.2 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drøbak / Frogn | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Sarpsborg 08 II | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Drøbak / Frogn sit 9th in 3. Division - Girone 6 (22 points from 16 matches) and Sarpsborg 08 II sit 11th (15 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Drøbak / Frogn | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 21 | 22 |
| 11 | Sarpsborg 08 II | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 34 | 39 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Drøbak / Frogn vs Sarpsborg 08 II?
- The Footlab model makes Drøbak / Frogn the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Sarpsborg 08 II.
- Where and when is Drøbak / Frogn vs Sarpsborg 08 II played?
- Drøbak / Frogn vs Sarpsborg 08 II is played on October 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Seiersten stadion, in the 3. Division - Girone 6.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.