Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 36Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The moreroom.com Stadium, Dumbarton
The Footlab model makes Kelty Hearts the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Dumbarton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Dumbarton (1,449) and Kelty Hearts (1,528).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dumbarton have 3 wins, 0 draws and 12 defeats; Kelty Hearts have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kelty Hearts(away) | 1-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Edinburgh City(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Airdrie United(home) | 1-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Clyde(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stirling Albion(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dumbarton(home) | 3-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Elgin City(away) | 1-4 | League Two |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Motherwell U21(home) | 4-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stirling Albion(home) | 3-2 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Forfar Athletic(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Dumbarton win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Kelty Hearts win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kelty Hearts 3-1 Dumbarton | League Two |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Dumbarton 3-3 Kelty Hearts | Challenge Cup |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Kelty Hearts 0-6 Dumbarton | League One |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Dumbarton 2-0 Kelty Hearts | League One |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Kelty Hearts 2-0 Dumbarton | League One |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Dumbarton 2-2 Kelty Hearts | League One |
Last archived meeting: Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Dumbarton score 0.9 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Kelty Hearts score 1.2 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dumbarton | 0.9 | 2.7 | 2 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
| Kelty Hearts | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dumbarton sit 9th in League Two (3 points from 4 matches) and Kelty Hearts sit 4th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Kelty Hearts | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 9 | Dumbarton | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts?
- The Footlab model makes Kelty Hearts the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Dumbarton.
- Where and when is Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts played?
- Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts is played on May 1, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The moreroom.com Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.