Dundee vs Kilmarnock: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 29Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park, Dundee
The Footlab model makes Dundee the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Kilmarnock. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dundee vs Kilmarnock?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Dundee (1,863) and Kilmarnock (1,882).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dundee have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Kilmarnock have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dundee Utd(away) | 2-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aberdeen(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aberdeen(home) | 2-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Clyde(home) | 4-0 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ayr Utd(home) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 1-5 | Premiership |
| Aug 2, 2026 | ST Johnstone(away) | 3-4 | Premiership |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Peterhead(away) | 0-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Hamilton Academical(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Dundee win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Kilmarnock win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Kilmarnock 3-1 Dundee | Premiership |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Kilmarnock 2-2 Dundee | Premiership |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Kilmarnock 1-2 Dundee | FA Cup |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Dundee 2-1 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Kilmarnock 0-0 Dundee | Premiership |
| May 10, 2025 | Kilmarnock 3-2 Dundee | Premiership |
How many goals should we expect?
Dundee score 1.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Kilmarnock score 2.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee | 1.8 | 1.4 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Kilmarnock | 2.1 | 1.2 | 7 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dundee sit 2nd in Premiership (6 points from 3 matches) and Kilmarnock sit 12th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dundee | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dundee vs Kilmarnock?
- The Footlab model makes Dundee the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Kilmarnock.
- Where and when is Dundee vs Kilmarnock played?
- Dundee vs Kilmarnock is played on February 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.