Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 36Kick-off on April 30, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC)KDM Group East End Park, Dunfermline
The Footlab model makes Dunfermline the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Stenhousemuir. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir?
A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate Dunfermline (1,789) and Stenhousemuir (1,813).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dunfermline have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Stenhousemuir have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Livingston(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ross County(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ayr Utd(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Jul 26, 2026 | ST Mirren(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Queen's Park(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Motherwell(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Morton(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Livingston(home) | 0-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Dunfermline win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Stenhousemuir win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | Dunfermline 3-0 Stenhousemuir | FA Cup |
| Jul 24, 2021 | Dunfermline 4-1 Stenhousemuir | League Cup |
| Mar 5, 2016 | Dunfermline 5-0 Stenhousemuir | League One |
| Feb 6, 2016 | Stenhousemuir 0-3 Dunfermline | League One |
| Dec 19, 2015 | Dunfermline 1-0 Stenhousemuir | League One |
| Sep 19, 2015 | Stenhousemuir 0-5 Dunfermline | League One |
Last archived meeting: Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir on Jan 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Dunfermline score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Stenhousemuir score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Stenhousemuir | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dunfermline sit 8th in Championship (2 points from 3 matches) and Stenhousemuir sit 1st (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Dunfermline | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir?
- The Footlab model makes Dunfermline the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Stenhousemuir.
- Where and when is Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir played?
- Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir is played on April 30, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at KDM Group East End Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.