Düren Merzenich vs Hennef 05: prediction and stats
Oberliga - MittelrheinMittelrhein - 22Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Westkampfbahn, Düren
The Footlab model makes Düren Merzenich the favourite at 53%, against 20% for a draw and 27% for Hennef 05. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Düren Merzenich vs Hennef 05?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Düren Merzenich (1,729) and Hennef 05 (1,698).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Düren Merzenich have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Hennef 05 have 7, 0 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Fortuna Köln II(home) | 2-5 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| May 31, 2026 | Eintracht Hohkeppel(away) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| May 22, 2026 | TuS BW Königsdorf(home) | 2-0 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| May 17, 2026 | Bornheim(away) | 2-4 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| May 10, 2026 | Siegburger SV(home) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Bornheim(home) | 1-3 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| May 31, 2026 | Siegburger SV(away) | 0-3 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| May 25, 2026 | Teutonia Weiden(home) | 4-1 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| May 17, 2026 | Porz(away) | 5-1 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| May 10, 2026 | Wegberg-Beeck(home) | 1-0 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 4 Düren Merzenich win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Hennef 05 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Hennef 05 1-0 Düren Merzenich | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Düren Merzenich 2-0 Hennef 05 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| Jan 28, 2023 | Düren Merzenich 7-1 Hennef 05 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 1, 2022 | Düren Merzenich 5-1 Hennef 05 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| Oct 17, 2021 | Hennef 05 0-2 Düren Merzenich | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
Last archived meeting: Hennef 05 vs Düren Merzenich on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Düren Merzenich score 1.5 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Hennef 05 score 1.8 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Düren Merzenich | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Hennef 05 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Düren Merzenich sit 11th in Oberliga - Mittelrhein (38 points from 30 matches) and Hennef 05 sit 12th (35 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Düren Merzenich | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 49 | 59 | 38 |
| 12 | Hennef 05 | 30 | 11 | 2 | 17 | 45 | 66 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Düren Merzenich vs Hennef 05?
- The Footlab model makes Düren Merzenich the favourite at 53%, against 20% for a draw and 27% for Hennef 05.
- Where and when is Düren Merzenich vs Hennef 05 played?
- Düren Merzenich vs Hennef 05 is played on April 11, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Westkampfbahn, in the Oberliga - Mittelrhein.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.