Dynamo Kyiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on May 15, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Kyiv
The Footlab model makes Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Dynamo Kyiv. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dynamo Kyiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Dynamo Kyiv (2,013) and Shakhtar Donetsk (2,090).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dynamo Kyiv have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Shakhtar Donetsk have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Qarabag(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Veres Rivne(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Qarabag(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | PAOK(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Kudrivka(home) | 5-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Bursaspor(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 23, 2026 | HNK Gorica(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Dynamo Kyiv win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Shakhtar Donetsk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv 1-2 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 Dynamo Kyiv | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Dynamo Kyiv 2-1 Shakhtar Donetsk | Cup |
| May 14, 2025 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv | Cup |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2-2 Dynamo Kyiv | Premier League |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Dynamo Kyiv 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Dynamo Kyiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Dynamo Kyiv score 1.6 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Shakhtar Donetsk score 2.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Kyiv | 1.6 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dynamo Kyiv sit 4th in Premier League (6 points from 2 matches) and Shakhtar Donetsk sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dynamo Kyiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
- The Footlab model makes Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Dynamo Kyiv.
- Where and when is Dynamo Kyiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk played?
- Dynamo Kyiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk is played on May 15, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.