Eastern Suburbs vs Wellington Phoenix II: prediction and stats
National League - NationalChampionship Group - 9Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC)Madills Farm, Kohimarama
The Footlab AI model makes Eastern Suburbs the favourite at 58%, against 21% for a draw and 21% for Wellington Phoenix II. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 6,211 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Eastern Suburbs vs Wellington Phoenix II?
Eastern Suburbs starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (1,791 vs 1,662).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Eastern Suburbs vs Wellington Phoenix II
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Eastern Suburbs
Not enough data to predict the Eastern Suburbs lineup.
Wellington Phoenix II
Not enough data to predict the Wellington Phoenix II lineup.
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 11:56 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Eastern Suburbs have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Wellington Phoenix II have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2026 | Birkenhead United(away) | 2-1 | National League - National |
| Nov 8, 2026 | Cashmere Technical(home) | 2-0 | National League - National |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Auckland United(away) | 2-1 | National League - National |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Miramar(home) | 1-4 | National League - National |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Wellington Olympic(away) | 0-4 | National League - National |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2026 | Auckland City(home) | 1-1 | National League - National |
| Nov 7, 2026 | Ferrymead Bays(away) | 0-1 | National League - National |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Auckland FC 2(home) | 3-2 | National League - National |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Napier City Rovers(away) | 1-3 | National League - National |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Birkenhead United(home) | 0-1 | National League - National |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Eastern Suburbs wins, 1 draw, 0 Wellington Phoenix II wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix II 0-2 Eastern Suburbs | National League - National |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Wellington Phoenix II 3-5 Eastern Suburbs | National League - National |
| Jan 31, 2021 | Eastern Suburbs 8-0 Wellington Phoenix II | Premiership |
| Nov 28, 2020 | Wellington Phoenix II 0-4 Eastern Suburbs | Premiership |
| Dec 22, 2019 | Eastern Suburbs 2-2 Wellington Phoenix II | Premiership |
| Jan 12, 2019 | Wellington Phoenix II 0-4 Eastern Suburbs | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: Wellington Phoenix II vs Eastern Suburbs on Sep 28, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Eastern Suburbs score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Wellington Phoenix II score 1.3 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Suburbs | 1.3 | 1.3 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Wellington Phoenix II | 1.3 | 2.2 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Eastern Suburbs sit 9th in National League - National (7 points from 6 matches) and Wellington Phoenix II sit 10th (5 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Eastern Suburbs | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 7 |
| 10 | Wellington Phoenix II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 5 |
A question about Eastern Suburbs vs Wellington Phoenix II?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Eastern Suburbs vs Wellington Phoenix II?
- The Footlab AI model makes Eastern Suburbs the favourite at 58%, against 21% for a draw and 21% for Wellington Phoenix II.
- Where and when is Eastern Suburbs vs Wellington Phoenix II played?
- Eastern Suburbs vs Wellington Phoenix II is played on November 22, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC) at Madills Farm, in the National League - National.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.