Eastern vs Hong Kong FC: prediction and stats
FA CupRound of 16Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 07:00 AM (UTC)Mong Kok Stadium, Hong Kong
The Footlab model makes Eastern the favourite at 72%, against 17% for a draw and 11% for Hong Kong FC. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Eastern vs Hong Kong FC?
Eastern is a heavy favourite: 1,535 Elo points against 1,205, a 331-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Eastern have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Hong Kong FC have 2, 1 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Shatin(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| May 17, 2026 | Kitchee(away) | 4-4 | Premier League |
| May 9, 2026 | Wofoo Tai Po(home) | 2-4 | Premier League |
| May 1, 2026 | North District(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Warriors(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Southern District(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Kowloon City(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | BC Rangers(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| May 3, 2026 | Southern District(home) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Eastern District(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Eastern win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Hong Kong FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Eastern 5-0 Hong Kong FC | Premier League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Hong Kong FC 0-4 Eastern | Premier League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Eastern 3-0 Hong Kong FC | Senior Shield |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Eastern 1-1 Hong Kong FC | Premier League |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Hong Kong FC 0-2 Eastern | Premier League |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Eastern 4-0 Hong Kong FC | Sapling Cup |
Last archived meeting: Eastern vs Hong Kong FC on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Eastern score 1.7 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Hong Kong FC score 1.0 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern | 1.7 | 2.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Hong Kong FC | 1.0 | 2.7 | 0 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Eastern vs Hong Kong FC?
- The Footlab model makes Eastern the favourite at 72%, against 17% for a draw and 11% for Hong Kong FC.
- Where and when is Eastern vs Hong Kong FC played?
- Eastern vs Hong Kong FC is played on January 24, 2027 at 07:00 AM (UTC) at Mong Kok Stadium, in the FA Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.