Kitchee vs Southern District: prediction and stats
FA CupRound of 16Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 07:00 AM (UTC)Mong Kok Stadium, Hong Kong
The Footlab model makes Kitchee the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Southern District. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kitchee vs Southern District?
Kitchee starts as the favourite with a 249-point Elo edge (1,685 vs 1,436).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kitchee have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Southern District have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | BC Rangers(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Prime Bangkok(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Eastern(home) | 4-4 | Premier League |
| May 2, 2026 | Wofoo Tai Po(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | North District(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hong Kong FC(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| May 9, 2026 | Eastern District(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| May 3, 2026 | Hong Kong FC(away) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Kowloon City(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | BC Rangers(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Kitchee win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Southern District win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Kitchee 3-0 Southern District | Premier League |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Southern District 2-4 Kitchee | Premier League |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Southern District 1-3 Kitchee | Premier League |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Southern District 1-1 Kitchee | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Kitchee 1-1 Southern District | Premier League |
| May 18, 2024 | Southern District 0-3 Kitchee | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Kitchee vs Southern District on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kitchee score 2.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Southern District score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitchee | 2.3 | 1.4 | 6 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Southern District | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kitchee vs Southern District?
- The Footlab model makes Kitchee the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Southern District.
- Where and when is Kitchee vs Southern District played?
- Kitchee vs Southern District is played on January 24, 2027 at 07:00 AM (UTC) at Mong Kok Stadium, in the FA Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.