Kowloon City vs Shatin: prediction and stats
FA CupRound of 16Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 07:00 AM (UTC)Sham Shui Po Sports Ground, Kowloon
The Footlab model makes Kowloon City the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Shatin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kowloon City vs Shatin?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Kowloon City (1,400) and Shatin (1,358).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kowloon City have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Shatin have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Warriors(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Hong Kong FC(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| May 3, 2026 | BC Rangers(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Southern District(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Eastern District(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Eastern(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Tung Sing(away) | 0-0 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Sham Shui Po(home) | 0-1 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 Sing(home) | 1-1 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Lucky Mile(away) | 6-3 | HKFA 1st Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 4 Kowloon City win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Shatin win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2024 | Shatin 2-4 Kowloon City | HKFA 1st Division |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Kowloon City 3-2 Shatin | HKFA 1st Division |
| Mar 26, 2023 | Kowloon City 4-0 Shatin | HKFA 1st Division |
| Dec 4, 2022 | Shatin 1-3 Kowloon City | HKFA 1st Division |
Last archived meeting: Shatin vs Kowloon City on Feb 4, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Kowloon City score 1.2 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Shatin score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kowloon City | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Shatin | 1.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kowloon City vs Shatin?
- The Footlab model makes Kowloon City the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Shatin.
- Where and when is Kowloon City vs Shatin played?
- Kowloon City vs Shatin is played on January 23, 2027 at 07:00 AM (UTC) at Sham Shui Po Sports Ground, in the FA Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.