Ebbsfleet United vs Chesham United: prediction and stats
National League - SouthNational League South - 16Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Kuflink Stadium, Northfleet, Kent
The Footlab model makes Ebbsfleet United the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Chesham United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ebbsfleet United vs Chesham United?
A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate Ebbsfleet United (1,817) and Chesham United (1,792).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ebbsfleet United have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Chesham United have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Gillingham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Cray Valley PM(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | West Ham United U21(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Dartford(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Worthing(away) | 0-2 | National League - South |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Walton & Hersham(home) | 2-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Farnborough(away) | 0-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Braintree(away) | 2-3 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Weston-super-Mare(away) | 0-3 | National League - South |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Chertsey Town(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Ebbsfleet United win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Chesham United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Chesham United 4-1 Ebbsfleet United | National League - South |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Ebbsfleet United 2-1 Chesham United | National League - South |
Last archived meeting: Chesham United vs Ebbsfleet United on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ebbsfleet United score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Chesham United score 1.8 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebbsfleet United | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Chesham United | 1.8 | 1.8 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Chesham United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ebbsfleet United vs Chesham United?
- The Footlab model makes Ebbsfleet United the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Chesham United.
- Where and when is Ebbsfleet United vs Chesham United played?
- Ebbsfleet United vs Chesham United is played on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Kuflink Stadium, in the National League - South.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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- Nov 7, 2026Hampton & RichmondvsMaidenhead
- Nov 7, 2026Slough TownvsWalton & Hersham
- Nov 7, 2026Weston-super-MarevsBraintree
- Nov 7, 2026Chelmsford CityvsFarnborough
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