EC Novo Horizonte vs Real: prediction and stats
Gaúcho - 3Regular Season - 4Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes EC Novo Horizonte the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Real. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win EC Novo Horizonte vs Real?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate EC Novo Horizonte (1,562) and Real (1,606).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 5 matches in all competitions, EC Novo Horizonte have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Real have 0, 3 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2025 | Apafut(away) | 0-3 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Nova Prata(home) | 0-3 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Clube 1992(away) | 1-1 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Apafut(home) | 0-0 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Guarani RS(away) | 0-7 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2025 | Lajeadense(away) | 0-0 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Novo Hamburgo(home) | 0-3 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Passo Fundo(home) | 1-3 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 16, 2025 | União RS(away) | 1-1 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Gramadense(home) | 0-1 | Gaúcho - 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
EC Novo Horizonte score 0.2 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 5; Real score 0.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EC Novo Horizonte | 0.2 | 2.8 | 1 | 1/5 | 3/5 |
| Real | 0.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 5 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for EC Novo Horizonte vs Real?
- The Footlab model makes EC Novo Horizonte the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Real.
- Where and when is EC Novo Horizonte vs Real played?
- EC Novo Horizonte vs Real is played on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC), in the Gaúcho - 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.