Elva vs Flora II: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 25Kick-off on August 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Elva linnastaadion, Elva
The Footlab model makes Elva the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Flora II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Elva vs Flora II?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Elva (1,403) and Flora II (1,388).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Elva have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Flora II have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Joker(home) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tartu Welco(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(away) | 2-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Viimsi(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tartu Welco(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(home) | 3-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Tallinn(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 5-0 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Elva win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Flora II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2026 | Elva 0-3 Flora II | Esiliiga A |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Flora II 3-2 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Elva 2-0 Flora II | Esiliiga A |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Flora II 2-0 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| May 29, 2025 | Flora II 0-1 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| May 3, 2025 | Elva 2-2 Flora II | Esiliiga A |
How many goals should we expect?
Elva score 2.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Flora II score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elva | 2.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
| Flora II | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Elva sit 4th in Esiliiga A (23 points from 16 matches) and Flora II sit 3rd (26 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Flora II | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 24 | 26 |
| 3 | Flora II | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 57 | 42 | 40 |
| 4 | Elva | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 27 | 23 |
| 4 | Elva | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 37 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Elva vs Flora II?
- The Footlab model makes Elva the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Flora II.
- Where and when is Elva vs Flora II played?
- Elva vs Flora II is played on August 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Elva linnastaadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.