Emelec vs Leones del Norte: prediction and stats
Liga ProPlacement Group - 5Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio George Capwell, Guayaquil
The Footlab AI model makes Emelec the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Leones del Norte. The most likely score is 1-1. If Emelec wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.5% of the 3,515 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Emelec vs Leones del Norte?
On Elo ratings, Emelec has 1,722 points and Leones del Norte 1,688.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Emelec vs Leones del Norte
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Emelec
4-2-3-1- 9R. Carrillo
- 32J. Valverde
- 19J. Ruíz
- 5A. Mina
- 59Reixon Saya
- 10F. Pizzini
- 27F. León
- 4E. Segura
- 80O. Herrera
- 2A. Leguizamón
- 12P. Ortíz
Leones del Norte
4-2-3-1- 40Juan Luis Anangonó León
- 5T. Coppo
- 99C. Solano
- 7M. Luque
- 6Emiliano Griffa
- 11M. Caramuto
- 23N. Monserrat
- 2J. Morán
- 34S. Portocarrero
- 29P. Madero
- 45M. Ramírez
Computed on October 25, 2026 at 06:44 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Emelec have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Leones del Norte have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Leones del Norte(away) | 3-1 | Liga Pro |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC(away) | 2-3 | Liga Pro |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Libertad(home) | 1-2 | Liga Pro |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Macara(away) | 0-1 | Liga Pro |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Manta FC(home) | 1-0 | Liga Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Libertad(home) | 4-1 | Liga Pro |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Emelec(home) | 1-3 | Liga Pro |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Libertad(away) | 0-3 | Liga Pro |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC(away) | 1-1 | Liga Pro |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Tecnico Universitario(home) | 0-1 | Liga Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Emelec wins, 1 draw, 1 Leones del Norte win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Leones del Norte 1-3 Emelec | Liga Pro |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Emelec 2-1 Leones del Norte | Liga Pro |
| May 3, 2026 | Leones del Norte 2-0 Emelec | Liga Pro |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Leones del Norte 0-0 Emelec | Copa Ecuador |
Last archived meeting: Leones del Norte vs Emelec on Oct 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Emelec score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Leones del Norte score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emelec | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Leones del Norte | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Emelec sit 9th in Liga Pro (42 points from 33 matches) and Leones del Norte sit 10th (40 points from 33 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Emelec | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 31 | 40 | 42 |
| 10 | Leones del Norte | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 33 | 39 | 40 |
A question about Emelec vs Leones del Norte?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Emelec vs Leones del Norte?
- The Footlab AI model makes Emelec the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Leones del Norte.
- Where and when is Emelec vs Leones del Norte played?
- Emelec vs Leones del Norte is played on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio George Capwell, in the Liga Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.