Erbil vs Diyala: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Franso Hariri Stadium, Erbil
The Footlab model makes Erbil the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Diyala. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Erbil vs Diyala?
Erbil starts as the favourite with a 193-point Elo edge (1,661 vs 1,468).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Erbil have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Diyala have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Al Kahrabaa(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Baghdad(home) | 3-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 28, 2026 | Zakho(away) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 20, 2026 | Al Shorta(away) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Mosul(away) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Al Talaba(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Duhok(home) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| May 27, 2026 | Al-Karma(away) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 19, 2026 | Baghdad(home) | 1-4 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Erbil win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Diyala win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | Erbil 2-0 Diyala | Iraqi League |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Diyala 1-1 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| May 12, 2025 | Diyala 1-0 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| Sep 20, 2024 | Erbil 2-1 Diyala | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Erbil score 1.8 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Diyala score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erbil | 1.8 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Diyala | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Erbil sit 1st in Iraqi League (4 points from 2 matches) and Diyala sit 8th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erbil | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Diyala | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Erbil vs Diyala?
- The Footlab model makes Erbil the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Diyala.
- Where and when is Erbil vs Diyala played?
- Erbil vs Diyala is played on September 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Franso Hariri Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.