Erbil vs Mosul: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Franso Hariri Stadium, Erbil
The Footlab AI model makes Erbil the favourite at 64%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Mosul. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Erbil vs Mosul?
Erbil starts as the favourite with a 197-point Elo edge (1,673 vs 1,475).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Erbil vs Mosul
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Erbil
Not enough data to predict the Erbil lineup.
Mosul
Not enough data to predict the Mosul lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 03:25 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Erbil have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Mosul have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Karbala(away) | 3-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Al-Karma(home) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Diyala(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Al Shorta(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(home) | 0-3 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Naft(home) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Zakho(away) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Newroz(away) | 0-3 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Al Zawra'a(home) | 2-2 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Erbil win, 1 draw, 0 Mosul wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 | Erbil 2-2 Mosul | Iraqi League |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Mosul 0-2 Erbil | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Erbil score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Mosul score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erbil | 1.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Mosul | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Erbil sit 4th in Iraqi League (18 points from 9 matches) and Mosul sit 17th (8 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Erbil | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 18 |
| 17 | Mosul | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 8 |
A question about Erbil vs Mosul?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Erbil vs Mosul?
- The Footlab AI model makes Erbil the favourite at 64%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Mosul.
- Where and when is Erbil vs Mosul played?
- Erbil vs Mosul is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Franso Hariri Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.